Brazil is lost. The rush begins.

Brazil is lost. The rush begins.

What I say: Brazil is lost. The rush begins. Lula won by 4.4 million votes. Washington did not have that script. Now it speeds up in Venezuela, Cuba and Mexico, and squeezes Brazil where it hurts most: money.

The data: With 100 percent of tally sheets, the Superior Electoral Court gives Lula 64,256,232 votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 59,826,041. The gap is 4,430,191 votes.

Venezuela, the next day: On Monday the 26th, a senior State Department official said Delcy Rodríguez should declare the presidency vacant in 2027, once the Supreme Court and the Electoral Council are renewed, to hold elections. See story 03.

Mexico, the same Monday: Guadalupe Taddei handed the Chamber of Deputies her resignation as head of INE, with the comptroller investigating 18 companies. See story 04.

What Brazil has: The world’s second-largest known rare earth reserves and about 90 percent of world niobium output, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Washington wants them to stop relying on China for its defense industry.

Where it already squeezed: Trump imposed double-digit tariffs on Brazilian goods as punishment for the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. In May, Washington designated the PCC and Comando Vermelho, Brazil’s two largest criminal factions, as terrorists. Lula warned the label could be a pretext to intervene.

What Lula did not sign: Brazil did not join the Shield of the Americas or Washington’s security coalition against the cartels. A President Flávio would have signed it.

The full article: What Washington does now in Venezuela, Cuba and Mexico, and what happens to Brazil’s money. It is in my Patreon community.

Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly fled to the United States on a private plane, according to an Argentine newspaper. His campaign denies it.

What is reported: Infobae, one of Argentina’s leading newspapers, published early Tuesday that Flávio Bolsonaro crossed by land from Foz do Iguaçu to Puerto Iguazú, in Misiones, using his national ID, to take a private flight to the United States.

The plane: A Gulfstream G400 registered LV-JQW, operated by Baires Fly S.A. According to Infobae, it requested immigration and customs clearance for four passengers and three crew.

What is not confirmed: Argentina’s migration authority has said nothing. According to the newspaper H2FOZ, the plane reached Puerto Iguazú on Monday night but did not take off, because the local aviation authority did not authorize it. The Federal Police in Foz has no record of the crossing.

The police: The Federal Police in Brasília asked Argentine authorities for information. Senior officers said he did not pass any regular immigration checkpoint and are checking whether he crossed without one.

The denial: Senator Rogério Marinho, his campaign coordinator, said: “He did not leave.” Flávio’s office did not respond to the press.

The order: On Monday the 26th, justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered him to surrender his passports and barred him from leaving the country, in an investigation into alleged money laundering and currency evasion together with his lawyer Willer Tomaz. The decision is sealed. Flávio said in a video he would comply and would “organize the opposition.”

If he reached the United States: Brazil and the United States have an extradition treaty signed in 1961. An order not to leave the country is a precautionary measure, not an arrest warrant.

The games are over. The State Department says Delcy Rodríguez should declare the presidency vacant in 2027 and call elections.

What was said: A senior State Department official, in a telephone briefing on Monday the 26th, said Delcy Rodríguez should declare a permanent vacancy in the presidency. “Our goal is to achieve elections.”

The sequence: First, the new Supreme Court of Justice “at the end of this year.” Then the new National Electoral Council “shortly after.” With both in place, the vacancy.

The rule: According to the official, Venezuelan law opens six months for elections once a permanent vacancy is declared.

The standard: That “the losing side recognizes the process was fair.” Washington will use its influence over the interim authorities to keep the process moving.

The opposition: Dinorah Figuera, who leads the opposition delegation in the talks, proposed a new Supreme Court before year end. She gave no date for the Electoral Council.

What I say: The games are over.

Why it matters to Mexico: It is the second time in a year Washington has set public conditions on a regional country’s election authority. INE lost its president the same day.

For the first time, the head of Mexico’s electoral body resigns over corruption. She came from Morena and López Obrador endorsed her.

What I say: For the first time in Mexico’s political history, the head of the electoral body announces her resignation over corruption. She came from Morena and was endorsed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

What happened: On Monday the 26th, Guadalupe Taddei handed the Chamber of Deputies her resignation as head of INE. She said she was leaving to “protect the Institute.”

What the comptroller says: Comptroller Víctor Hugo Carvente told the Chamber he opened 16 case files in 2025 and 2026; 11 concern contracting. They involve 15 current and former public servants, 8 individuals and 18 companies. Six audits and eight reviews opened 25 more investigations.

The conduct: Diversion of funds, illicit enrichment, conflicts of interest, abuse of office, false information in asset declarations and simulated contracting requirements.

The audit: On October 9, 45 preliminary findings were served from audit A07-ADQ-2026, which reviews contracts from December 1, 2024 to May 31, 2026.

The power that allowed it: In October 2024, Morena and its allies amended article 45 of the electoral law. Since then INE’s president alone appoints and removes executive directors and heads of technical units, without a Council vote. Procurement runs through those offices.

Who endorsed her: Taddei came out of a lottery in the Chamber on March 31, 2023. That day López Obrador said she is “honest” and that her family are “progressive people.” Her niece Ivana Celeste Taddei Arriola is a Morena state lawmaker in Sonora.

What comes next: The PAN will ask the comptroller to testify. The resignation closes no case file.

What I asked the United States for: On September 23 I filed with OFAC and the State Department a sanctions review under Executive Order 13818 and visa ineligibility under section 7031(c) against INE officials and suppliers. The document needed to escalate is the list of the 18 companies, which the comptroller has not published.

If this hits close to home: Register for free with México 2030 and protect your vote in 2027: mexico2030.com/registro.

Thirty-one states blocked over 4.5 billion pesos. The Senate votes today on the law that caused it.

The problem, in plain words. A trucker pays tolls. Since 2002 he can deduct part of that toll from his taxes. To qualify there is a revenue ceiling. That ceiling was 300 million pesos a year. In the 2027 Revenue Law it drops to 250 million. That is all. That line is what put trucks across the highways of 31 states.

What happened. On Monday, October 26, at seven in the morning, Canacar and Hamotac launched a strike that reached 31 states. In the State of Mexico they closed the El Dorado toll plaza on the Toluca-Atlacomulco highway at 4:30 p.m. and three lanes of the Mexico-Toluca highway at 4:00 p.m. Veracruz saw the largest mobilization and it ran into the night. In Quintana Roo, on Federal Highway 307 between Playa del Carmen and Cancún, the queue reached 20 kilometers and about 300 people missed their flights.

What they are asking for. Four things: that the ceiling not drop from 300 to 250 million; highway security; an end to abuses by tow trucks and impound lots; and infrastructure. Only the first has a date: the law is voted today.

What the government answers. Finance Minister Édgar Amador Zamora said on October 26 that the adjustment reaches 170 companies, 6 percent of the 2,580 taxpayers who use the benefit, and that the remaining 94 percent keep it, including owner-operators. He also said the toll incentive costs 13.9 billion pesos in 2026, that diesel support through the IEPS tax runs around 100 billion, that total fiscal support to the sector reached about 115 billion in 2025, that the benefit grew more than fivefold in six years and that it reached 0.4 percent of GDP in 2019. The adjustment, he said, raises 4.5 billion pesos more.

The thread. A: the law raises revenue by 4.5 billion pesos by removing a deduction. B: the same law authorizes up to 1.7 trillion pesos of net domestic borrowing and projects 10.63 trillion in revenue. C: the Senate votes on both in the same document today.

The law the Senate votes today collects 4.5 billion and borrows 1.7 trillion.

In plain words. The Revenue Law is the list of everything the government will collect and everything it will borrow next year. It passes the Chamber of Deputies first, then the Senate. Deputies approved it on October 15. Senate committees cleared it on October 21. Today it goes to the floor.

The numbers. Projected revenue of 10.63 trillion pesos. A net domestic borrowing ceiling of up to 1.7 trillion. This Diario reported yesterday that the new debt equals one in every six pesos of the budget.

The thread with the lead. The toll incentive cut that stopped 31 states is worth 4.5 billion pesos. Against the debt ceiling, that is 0.26 percent. Against projected revenue, 0.042 percent. If the Revenue Law were printed on a hundred pages, the cut would take up four hundredths of one page.

What to watch today. Whether the floor amends the incentive article or leaves it as is. If it is left as is, the strike loses its immediate legislative object and becomes an administrative negotiation with the Interior Ministry, which has already announced a table with the carriers.

The Ministry says 94 percent. The other 6 percent moves 32 percent of the money.

In plain words. When a government says a measure does not affect 94 percent, it is counting people. When the sector says it is a blow, it is counting pesos. Both counts can be true at once. The honest thing is to publish both.

Counting people. 2,580 taxpayers use the toll incentive. The adjustment reaches 170. That is 6.6 percent. The Ministry rounds to 6 and says 94 percent is untouched. Correct.

Counting pesos. The incentive costs 13.9 billion pesos in 2026. The adjustment raises 4.5 billion. That is 32.4 percent of the incentive, concentrated in those 170. Also correct.

What falls out of it. The 170 companies average 26.5 million pesos of benefit each. The other 2,410 average 3.9 million. The ratio between the two averages is 6.8 to 1. That is the figure neither side published: not the Ministry, not Canacar.

Why it matters to a founder. If you bill close to the limit and you move freight, the 250 million threshold creates a cliff: growing one peso above 250 million costs you the entire benefit. That kind of cliff punishes formal growth and rewards splitting into several legal entities. It is a known and measurable effect.

Eleven charged in El Paso with moving stolen vehicles to criminal organizations in Mexico.

What happened. On Monday, October 26, federal prosecutors in El Paso announced charges against thirteen people over a scheme moving stolen vehicles from the United States to criminal organizations in Mexico. Eleven were charged federally: David Monarrez, Cesar David Diaz, Sinuhe Baltizar Lopez, Christopher Rene Reyes, Angel Antonio Flores, Aaron Fernando Luna-Evans, Amy Foote, James Dewey Garrett, Hilario Abraham Morales, Pablo Frias and Pilar Bernabeth Mendez Rivas. Two U.S. citizens, Kimberly Aguilar and Marty Gerardo Jr., were held in state custody.

The hard number. 29 vehicles recovered, valued at 1,137,000 dollars. The operation was run by the Homeland Security Task Force with HSI and the FBI. U.S. Attorney Justin Simmons made the announcement.

What the announcement does not say. It names no specific criminal organization: it refers to criminal organizations in Mexico. And it does not detail the statutes charged. We say so explicitly because the difference matters: if the case stops at interstate transport of stolen vehicles, the ceiling is one; if the designated recipient is added, it is another.

Why it runs in this edition. Because it is the same chain. The stolen vehicle crossing south and the stolen cargo that never makes it north are two ends of the same corridor, and today that corridor is halted by a tax fight.

Cargo theft is not a cost. It is the tax nobody legislated.

In plain words. A carrier pays taxes, pays tolls, pays diesel, pays insurance. And pays one more thing that is in no law: the expected loss from theft. That charge is not levied by the Finance Ministry. It is levied by whoever controls the stretch of road.

The figures. The State of Mexico records more than 1,700 robberies of carriers in 2026, and three of every four involved violence. On the San Martín Texmelucan stretch of the Mexico-Puebla highway, Canacar reports an average of 14 holdups a month and losses of up to 14 million pesos per cargo vehicle stolen. In Veracruz, Canacar delegate Norberto Limón said that although theft has fallen, violence has risen, and that 80 percent of thefts are committed with violence.

The required contrast. The government projects a 37 percent drop in cargo theft in 2026 and reported that in Esperanza, Puebla, robberies fell after the Enjambre operation in early September. Both can be true: the number of events can fall while violence per event rises. The indicator that matters for cost is not how many robberies there are, it is how much the loss is worth and what it costs to prevent.

The thread with the lead. The sector is asking for two things at once: keep the toll deduction and deliver highway security. The first is voted today. The second is not in the law voted today.

Seven two-minute tests predict who lives longer after 65. They cost nothing.

Why today. The country woke up halted by the most seated job there is: driving a freight truck twelve hours a day. It is worth knowing what the best available evidence says about physical capacity and survival. And it is worth saying it with a date: the most solid study on this question is not from this week, it is from August 10, 2026. No later peer-reviewed publication supersedes it.

What was done. Researchers in Taiwan linked the national physical fitness database to national health insurance records. They assessed 13,423 adults aged 65 or older, average age 72.9, between January 2015 and November 2016, and followed them through December 31, 2022, with a median of seven years. 1,631 people died, 12.2 percent.

The seven tests. Two-minute step test, 30-second arm curl, 30-second chair stand, back scratch, chair sit-and-reach, one-leg stance, and eight-foot up-and-go. No lab, no equipment.

The results. Comparing the fittest fifth against the least fit fifth, adjusted: composite index, hazard ratio 0.39, 95 percent confidence interval 0.32 to 0.48. Eight-foot up-and-go, 0.41. One-leg stance, 0.50. Chair stand, 0.55. Step test, 0.58. Arm curl, 0.63. Sit-and-reach, 0.79.

Rubio confirms Washington spoke with Caracas weeks before Machado's return.

What happened. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed on October 27 that the United States raised María Corina Machado's return to Venezuela with Caracas many weeks ago. Machado returned on October 26, a fact this edition documented yesterday.

What is known about the route. Coverage over the past two days describes a sequence pointing toward elections with replaced electoral infrastructure, a condition Rubio demanded publicly before any vote is called.

Why it matters to Mexico. Because it sets the regional precedent of the year: a negotiated transition with a calendar, with technical conditions on the electoral referee, and with the counterpart at the table. Any conversation about Mexico's electoral referee in 2027 will take place with that precedent in the room.

Pemex reports 21 percent less debt and announces 1.8 trillion pesos of investment.

What Pemex said. In its October 21 report, the company reported a 21 percent debt reduction, about 20 billion dollars less than in 2018, the lowest level since 2014, and announced an investment plan of 1.8 trillion pesos.

The contrast. Cutting debt and raising investment at the same time is only possible through one of three things: more internal cash flow, a lighter tax burden, or federal government contributions. The report does not break out which of the three sustains the plan. That is the missing figure.

The cross with today's edition. The 2027 Revenue Law voted today is the document that defines how much Pemex is charged and how much is transferred to it. The 1.8 trillion plan stands or falls there.

Google teaches you to use artificial intelligence. I teach you to make money with it.

What you will be able to do: Pull a decree, read the transitory articles, count the business days and publish the result before anyone else. That is what we did today with the Digital Economy Law and it is what the courses teach step by step.

Who it is for: For the founder who wants to stop paying for information they can produce, and for the professional who wants to get paid to produce it. No programming required.