The challenge to Flávio’s electoral fraud in Brazil is already being prepared. They ask to annul the runoff because the rules changed with thousands of ballot boxes already closed.

The challenge to Flávio’s electoral fraud in Brazil is already being prepared. They ask to annul the runoff because the rules changed with thousands of ballot boxes already closed.

What I say: The challenge to Flávio’s electoral fraud in Brazil is already being prepared. The challenges to the runoff are starting to take shape.

What was filed: Lawyers Paulo César Rodrigues de Faria and Filipe Rocha de Oliveira filed a petition on October 26 with the Electoral Prosecutor General’s Office asking that the October 25 presidential runoff be declared void. They act in their own names, under the right of petition.

The argument: Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting until 7:00 p.m. when thousands of ballot boxes were already closed. Two rules applied at once: closed sections voted until 5:00 p.m. and open ones until 7:00 p.m. According to the lawyers, the outcome at each polling place depended on whether it was still open when the order arrived.

The timing: In São Paulo, the regional court learned of the decision from the press around 5:00 p.m. and notified its 393 electoral judges at 5:18 p.m., when about 80% of sections had already closed. The electoral court’s official email arrived at 6:16 p.m.

The law: Article 224 of the Electoral Code orders a new presidential election when a nullity reaches more than half of the country’s votes. The lawyers themselves acknowledge the defect must first be declared and the affected votes counted. And article 219 requires proof of harm.

What they ask for: Preserving the transmission and totalization records, the time each operation was interrupted and resumed, the communications among the Supreme Court, the electoral court and the regional courts, and a report on affected votes and sections.

Geopolitical Daily calculation: Lula and Flávio drew 124,082,273 valid votes. For article 224 to apply, the nullity would have to reach more than 62 million. The gap between them was 4,430,191.

What is not there yet: The petition presents no evidence that tally sheets were altered; it disputes who could change the rules and how. The Prosecutor’s Office has not responded. Electoral court president Kassio Nunes Marques said the count was not compromised.

What I said in Argentina: “Thanks to Javier Milei, Flávio Bolsonaro is alive.”

Infobae, October 28: The headline was “Flávio Bolsonaro is alive thanks to Milei.” I said: “He is alive thanks to the intercession of President Milei,” and that “they were going to deprive him of his liberty first.” I explained the mechanism: “First you put him in jail, and inside jail many things can happen.”

What I did not say, and why: On how he got out and who paid for the flight I answered “For security reasons I cannot confirm more details” and “I cannot tell you who paid for it.” On the word escape: “It is a rescue, because axiologically one cannot say he escaped.”

Eduardo Feinmann, October 29: The headline was “They were going to deprive Flávio Bolsonaro of his liberty.” I told him: “It is not a flight, it is a rescue,” and that there was “imminent danger,” “not only to his liberty, but to Flavio’s physical integrity.”

The route, in my words: The entry into Argentina reported by the National Migration Directorate, Javier Milei’s support for Flávio, his wife and his two daughters, and the flight “bound for Guayaquil, to reach the United States, Miami.” And the comparison: “The same happened in the case of Evo Morales. The same happened in the case of María Corina.”

Infobae en Vivo: The full interview is on video.

Israel publishes the final result: Netanyahu bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19. Nobody reaches 61.

The result: The Central Elections Committee published the final count with no changes from the last update. Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc has 53 seats, the opposing bloc 48 and Arab parties 19. The Knesset has 120 seats and governing takes 61. Neither bloc has them.

By party: Likud 27, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar 21, Naftali Bennett’s party 12, Joint List 11, the Democrats 8, Ra’am 8, Yisrael Beytenu 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 6 and Religious Zionism 6.

Turnout: 77.9%, with 5,716,665 votes cast. Three parties fell below the 3.25% threshold.

What comes next: The official result goes to President Isaac Herzog on November 4 and the new Knesset is sworn in on November 10. Netanyahu is 8 seats short.

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Twenty-eight Navy SEALs landed in La Paz on October 29. The Senate authorized them the night before, with no debate.

The problem, in plain words. The Mexican Senate holds a power it almost never uses and almost nobody watches: deciding whether foreign troops may set foot in the country. On October 28 it used it. The next day, twenty-eight armed US service members stepped off a plane at a Mexican naval air base.

The thread, step by step. First: on October 26, at the morning press conference, President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed the United States has repeatedly asked to carry out military operations in Mexico and answered, verbatim, “we have always said no to that, that we can coordinate and cooperate on other matters”. Second: that same day the training permit request reached the Senate through the Interior Ministry. Third: on October 28 the floor approved it with no debate. Fourth: on October 29 the twenty-eight personnel landed at the La Paz Naval Air Base, Baja California Sur.

The necessary figure. The authorization runs from October 29, 2026 to April 15, 2027. That is 168 days. The first phase runs October 29 to November 5. The sites are the Navy's Advanced Training Center in Donato Guerra, State of Mexico, and the Puerto Cortés Naval Sector, Isla Margarita, Baja California Sur. On the Mexican side, 87 members of the Naval Special Operations Unit and the Naval Intelligence Unit take part.

The line nobody read. It is not the tactical training. It is the word intelligence. A shooting and diving exercise explains itself. The participation of the Naval Intelligence Unit in a 168-day program with a foreign special operations team is a different category: it is an exchange of method, of doctrine and, in practice, of information. Nobody has published the text of the agreement defining what is shared and what is not.

The contradiction, unadorned. The public position is that there are no US forces operating on national territory. The October 28 authorization is not an operation, it is training, and that is true. But the distance between the October 26 sentence and the October 29 landing is three days, and the Senate closed the matter without a single dissenting speech from the majority.

A 60-year-old engineer was charged with providing material support to a terrorist organization. His conduct, according to the indictment, was building a tunnel.

The problem, in plain words. Until now, building a tunnel for a cartel was drug trafficking. Since October 29, federal prosecutors also treat it as material support for terrorism. The change is not in the facts, it is in the statute.

What the indictment says. A federal grand jury in San Diego charged Luis Manuel Hernández Victoria, 60, of Guadalajara, Jalisco, known as El Ingeniero, on October 29. He is the seventh person charged in the tunnel case. According to prosecutors, he was arrested in Jalisco on October 15, 2026.

The four counts, with statutes. One, providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization, 18 U.S.C. 2339B(a)(1), up to 20 years. Two, conspiracy to construct or finance a cross-border tunnel, 18 U.S.C. 555(a) and (d), up to 20 years. Three, conspiracy to use a cross-border tunnel to import controlled substances, 18 U.S.C. 555(c) and (d), up to life. Four, conspiracy to import controlled substances, 21 U.S.C. 952, 960 and 963, up to life.

The tunnel. Roughly 1,933 feet long, 55 feet deep and 4.5 feet high, with reinforced walls, a rail system, ventilation and electricity. It ran from Tijuana to a store called Buy 4 Less at 2498 Roll Drive, San Diego, next to the Otay Mesa Port of Entry. It was discovered on May 29, 2026. Inside, more than one ton of cocaine was seized, valued by prosecutors at more than 45 million dollars.

Why it matters beyond this case. A 2339B charge does not require proving the defendant wanted to commit a terrorist act. It requires proving he knowingly provided a service to a designated foreign terrorist organization. Service includes professional work and technical knowledge. Since the United States designated several Mexican criminal organizations as foreign terrorist organizations in 2025, that statute became available for conduct previously charged only as drug crime.

The peso closed at its worst level in fifteen months. The 2027 budget is written on an exchange rate of 18.00.

The problem, in plain words. A budget is a written bet. The government states what the dollar will be worth, what rates will cost and how much the economy will grow, and builds everything else on those three numbers. If the dollar moves, the cost of debt moves with it. Two of the three assumptions in the 2027 package no longer match the market, and the fiscal year has not started.

The thread. First: on October 29 the peso closed the session at 18.8380 and the FIX determined that day was 18.8148 pesos per dollar, its worst level since August 2025, a 1.14 percent fall. Second: the General Economic Policy Criteria 2027, delivered to Congress on September 8, assume an exchange rate of 18.0 pesos at the close of 2027 and 17.9 on average, and revised the close of 2026 to 17.8. Third: the same document concedes that the 2027 debt increase will reflect, verbatim, “a higher financial cost and the effect of a higher exchange rate on the local-currency valuation of external debt”.

The Diario's calculation, replicable in five minutes. The Ministry estimates the close of 2026 at 17.8 pesos. The October 29 FIX was 18.8148. The difference is 1.0148 pesos, that is 5.7 percent above its own revised estimate. The Criteria's sensitivity table values a 20-centavo move in the exchange rate at 2.1 billion pesos of financial cost. Scaled linearly, 1.0148 pesos equals 5.07 increments of 20 centavos, roughly 10,650 million pesos of additional annual financial cost. This is a linear approximation built with the Ministry's own metric, not an official figure.

The second assumption already broken. The Criteria assume 28-day Cetes at 6.1 percent on average in 2027 and 6.0 at year-end. On October 28 the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, but two members voted to raise immediately, and futures markets priced roughly an 85 percent probability of a quarter-point hike in December. If the Fed raises, the differential with Mexico compresses and the pressure goes to the peso or to the rate. Either route hits the same budget line.

The ratio nobody puts on one line. In the 2027 draft, the financial cost of debt is 1,574,950.2 million pesos, 4.0 percent of output, against 3.7 percent estimated for 2026. Physical investment stays at 2.6 percent of output, flat. That is 1.53 pesos of interest per peso of physical investment. And the historic balance of public sector financial requirements goes from 54.0 percent of output in 2026 to 55.0 in 2027, on a path, from the document itself, that reaches 56.5 percent in 2032 and stays there.

The President asked for an audit of INE contracts predating Taddei. And said the suppliers became a duopoly or a tripoly.

The problem, in plain words. The institute that will run the 2027 election buys paper, ballots, ink and boxes. If a closed group of firms has been selling to it for twenty-seven years, price stops being a competition and becomes a habit. That is the allegation the Presidency itself now makes.

What was said on October 29. The President stated, verbatim, “I think Guadalupe Taddei betrayed the trust of the people of Mexico”. She asked the Federal Superior Audit Office for a deep review including tenders predating Taddei's tenure and also the state electoral bodies. On the firms she said some have held contracts with the institute since 1999, more than twenty years, and that they “have become a duopoly or a tripoly”.

The operational answer. She announced a plan for a state-owned company to produce the 2027 electoral paper and asked Talleres Gráficos de México to print institute materials. She also denied former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador imposed Taddei: she recalled Taddei was selected by Congress through a draw.

The other front, the family one. Sonora governor Alfonso Durazo on October 29 defended the appointment of Luis Rogelio Piñeda Taddei, eldest son of Guadalupe Taddei, as private secretary of the state Legal Counsel's office. He said, verbatim, “I am appointing you on your own merits”, and that he will not remove him unless an investigation links him to illegality. According to Sonora's transparency platform, the post carries net monthly pay of 138,494 pesos, with a base salary of 85,073 pesos.

What was already under way. The institute's internal control office reported 13 files opened since 2025, nine of them on procurement. The Chamber of Deputies' political coordination board agreed to summon the controller. And the permanent replacement at the institute's presidency is estimated at four to five weeks, placing the decision around the first week of December.

The judgment says 578 million dollars. The President said what was recovered was less.

The problem, in plain words. When a US judge orders forfeiture of an amount, that number becomes the headline. What is almost never published is how much of that number actually lands in an account. These are two different things and on October 29 the Presidency itself named the distance between them.

What was said. Speaking of the Genaro García Luna case, the President cited the figure and then corrected it downward, verbatim: “five hundred seventy-eight million dollars. No, that is not what was recovered, less was recovered”. And she added: “that is the court's judgment, but what has already been recovered was less”. She did not give the recovered figure.

The context of the same conference. Santiago Nieto, former head of the Financial Intelligence Unit, had told journalist Claudio Ochoa that the persecution of media outlets from that unit was the work of Pablo Gómez, his successor, and said of his own tenure: “no, look, I had instructions, it is part of the Executive Branch”. The President did not allow Gómez to respond from the podium. She said “Pablo did extraordinary work leading the FIU” and closed with “we are not going to enter that debate”.

The missing figure, and it is the important one. There is no public, official and verified figure for what was actually recovered. The President said it is lower than the court's order. Some reports from the conference place the recovered amount at around 200 million dollars, but she did not state that figure and no document backs it. So it is not published here as fact: the gap is what is published.

Why a forfeiture falls short. Three technical reasons, not political ones. One, a forfeiture order is usually a personal liability amount, not an inventory of located assets. Two, assets in third countries require cooperation procedures that can take years. Three, part of the amount may sit in assets that lose value or are held by third parties with their own rights. A judgment number is a ceiling, not a balance.

Aspirin did not protect function in 18,581 older adults. And the largest trial there is just confirmed it.

The problem, in plain words. Many older people take a daily aspirin believing it protects them from everything. The ASPREE trial had already shown it does not prevent death, dementia or disability in healthy people aged 70 and over. What nobody had measured is whether it at least preserves function: walking, thinking, having energy, being in good spirits. Now it has been measured.

How it was done. ASPREE randomized 19,114 adults in Australia and the United States, median age 74, 56.4 percent women, with no cardiovascular disease, dementia or disability at entry. Half received 100 milligrams daily of enteric-coated aspirin, half placebo, double blind. Median follow-up was 4.7 years. This new analysis built an intrinsic capacity index with four domains, cognition, locomotion, vitality and psychological wellbeing, and measured it annually in 18,581 participants.

Level one, proven in humans in a clinical trial. Aspirin at 100 milligrams a day did not preserve intrinsic capacity over five years. In men there was no effect at all, with a p of 0.86. The index does predict, however: those in the lowest fifth had far greater risk of losing dementia-free and disability-free survival than the highest fifth, with a hazard ratio of 4.62 in women, 95 percent confidence interval 3.16 to 6.75, and 4.32 in men, interval 3.42 to 5.48. And in the parent trial aspirin increased major hemorrhage: 3.8 percent against 2.8 percent on placebo.

Level two, correlation, not causation. The index was associated with the epigenetic clocks PC-PhenoAge, PC-GrimAge and DunedinPACE. That is a correlation. It does not show that moving a clock moves function, or the reverse.

What must not be said. In women there was an acceleration of decline on aspirin, with a coefficient of minus 0.006, interval minus 0.01 to minus 0.001, p of 0.01. But the analysis is post-hoc, the effect is very small, and the formal test of whether men and women respond differently came in at a p of 0.06, which does not clear the conventional threshold. The honest reading is that the signal is suggestive and the sex difference did not reach statistical significance. Saying aspirin ages women faster would be false.

Level three, no approval. No drug is approved by the FDA for aging, healthy aging or the prevention of functional decline. That indication does not exist. Aspirin is approved in the United States for pain, fever and secondary cardiovascular prevention, not to prevent frailty, dementia or aging: using it for that is off-label. Epigenetic clocks are research tools, not authorized diagnostic tests. The intrinsic capacity index is a research construct, not a clinical laboratory test.

The conflict of interest that must be stated. The study was paid for with public money, the US National Institute on Aging and the Australian medical research council, not industry. But one co-author, Steve Horvath, is a named inventor on the patents of several of the epigenetic clocks used to validate the index, is a principal investigator at a biomedical company and a paid consultant to the foundation that licenses those patents. It is disclosed in the article itself.

Limitations. The authors describe this as a post-hoc analysis and call the effect in women small. In the final year of the parent trial adherence was 62.1 percent in the aspirin group and 64.1 in placebo, so what was measured is five years of imperfect real-world use. The cohort was 91.3 percent white and screened free of disease at entry: it cannot be extrapolated to a sicker or more diverse population.

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