MARKETS10-YEAR TREASURY · above 5%, highest since 2007BRENT · above 100 dollarsPESO · near 17 per dollarDIESEL FUEL TAX · at zero through September 18● EXPOSE, ARREST AND PROSECUTE: IT IS NOW IN WRITING IN A U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DETERMINATION · the document submitted to Congress on September 15 calls for exposing, arresting and prosecuting the many corrupt public officials that have aided and abetted the cartelsTHE UNITED STATES SEEKS A SECURE AND FREE MEXICO, SAYS MARCO RUBIO · the secretary of state spoke of an epidemic of narcoterrorism allowed to take root in Mexico and said there is still much more work to do togetherVENEZUELA EXITS THE DEMONSTRABLE FAILURE LIST AND MEXICO STAYS · the same document credits the removal of Nicolás Maduro and says Mexican security investments are insufficientMARKETS10-YEAR TREASURY · above 5%, highest since 2007BRENT · above 100 dollarsPESO · near 17 per dollarDIESEL FUEL TAX · at zero through September 18● EXPOSE, ARREST AND PROSECUTE: IT IS NOW IN WRITING IN A U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DETERMINATION · the document submitted to Congress on September 15 calls for exposing, arresting and prosecuting the many corrupt public officials that have aided and abetted the cartelsTHE UNITED STATES SEEKS A SECURE AND FREE MEXICO, SAYS MARCO RUBIO · the secretary of state spoke of an epidemic of narcoterrorism allowed to take root in Mexico and said there is still much more work to do togetherVENEZUELA EXITS THE DEMONSTRABLE FAILURE LIST AND MEXICO STAYS · the same document credits the removal of Nicolás Maduro and says Mexican security investments are insufficientMARKETS10-YEAR TREASURY · above 5%, highest since 2007BRENT · above 100 dollarsPESO · near 17 per dollarDIESEL FUEL TAX · at zero through September 18● EXPOSE, ARREST AND PROSECUTE: IT IS NOW IN WRITING IN A U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DETERMINATION · the document submitted to Congress on September 15 calls for exposing, arresting and prosecuting the many corrupt public officials that have aided and abetted the cartelsTHE UNITED STATES SEEKS A SECURE AND FREE MEXICO, SAYS MARCO RUBIO · the secretary of state spoke of an epidemic of narcoterrorism allowed to take root in Mexico and said there is still much more work to do togetherVENEZUELA EXITS THE DEMONSTRABLE FAILURE LIST AND MEXICO STAYS · the same document credits the removal of Nicolás Maduro and says Mexican security investments are insufficient
Diario Geopolítico · Washington D.C.No. 169 · Thursday, September 17, 2026
Edition No. 169 · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · It is now in writing
Expose, arrest and prosecute: it is now in writing in a U.S. Presidential Determination.
Just as I shared weeks and months ago, today it is no longer a commentator statement or political speculation. It is an official document submitted to Congress on September 15, and the sentence leaves no room for doubt: exposing, arresting and prosecuting the many corrupt public officials that have aided and abetted the cartels. Read the document with your own eyes. Plus: Rubio says the United States seeks a secure and free Mexico, and Venezuela exits the list Mexico does not.
3
Verbs in writing: expose, arrest and prosecute
SEP 15
Date the document was submitted to the U.S. Congress
23
Countries identified on the list; Mexico among them
34,211
Votes in my poll two days earlier, with the same verbs
Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for Fiscal Year 2027, submitted to the U.S. Congress on September 15, 2026 and published by the State Department · full document · my September 13 edition with the poll · my research on the Rubio strategy
Expose, arrest and prosecute: it is now in writing in a U.S. Presidential Determination
Just as I shared weeks and months ago. This is no longer a commentator statement or political speculation.
The verbatim sentence. The document says, about Mexico, that the campaign against narcoterrorists, their finances and their criminal networks includes exposing, arresting and prosecuting the many corrupt public officials that have aided and abetted the cartels and betrayed their own country security and sovereignty. It is a Presidential Determination on counternarcotics strategy for Fiscal Year 2027, submitted to Congress on September 15.
Verbatim · Presidential Determination, Fiscal Year 2027
“This includes exposing, arresting, and prosecuting the many corrupt public officials that have aided and abetted the cartels and betrayed their own country’s security and sovereignty.”
Each verb must be read.Expose. Arrest. Prosecute. Public officials who collaborated with the cartels.It does not say investigate. It does not say review. It does not say cooperate. It says expose, arrest and prosecute, and it says so in a document submitted to Congress that sets counternarcotics policy for the incoming fiscal year.
The quote and what surrounds Mexico in the document · Diario Geopolitico chart
What else it says about Mexico, in the same paragraph. That it must take additional action against narcoterrorist organizations that dominate vast areas of its territory and continue to threaten the American people. That its current investments in security forces are insufficient to sustain and expand its campaigns. That it must significantly increase inspections at its ports of entry and bolster supply chain integrity with greater private industry participation. And that Canada and Mexico need to do far more. The same document credits the bilateral cooperation that helped eliminate El Mencho.
Own four-day chronology · Diario Geopolitico chart
And this week sequence, worth putting in order. On September 13 I published here a poll with 34,211 votes where 92.76 percent answered in favor of exposing and arresting narco-politicians with arrest warrants. On September 15 a federal judge granted the first known warrant against Amílcar Olán. That same September 15, this Determination reached Congress with nearly the same verbs my poll had used two days earlier. Do not take my word: it is in the document and it is dated.
Now I separate the fact from my analysis, because they are not the same and whoever mixes them loses credibility. The fact is the quote: three verbs in an official document, dated and numbered. My reading is this: Washington has put the demand in writing, and when a demand moves from the press conference to the budget document, it stops being rhetoric and starts having measurable consequences in certifications, visas, licenses and cooperation. What the document does not say, and this must be said with equal clarity: it does not mention unilateral action, it does not mention extraction of individuals and it sets no deadlines. My reading is that the Mexican government will have to act on these officials itself, because the cost of not doing so is now written in a document the U.S. Congress will use to decide. That is my interpretation, not the text. The text is the three verbs, and those are enough.
The quote is verbatim from the document published by the State Department and the Spanish translation is this paper’s. The document does not mention unilateral action, extraction of individuals or deadlines, and it names no official. A country’s presence on the transit or production list, per the text itself, does not necessarily reflect its government’s counterdrug efforts. Every person retains the presumption of innocence and any charge is for the competent authority to determine.
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Message from the U.S. Secretary of State on the 216th anniversary of Mexican Independence, released by the Embassy on September 15 and 16, 2026 · quotes per the released text
The United States seeks a secure and free Mexico, says Marco Rubio
The same Independence Day greeting contains the line about narcoterrorism allowed to take root in Mexico.
What he said. That the United States is committed to a secure, free and prosperous Mexico that can remain a fundamental partner for decades to come. And that under the current administration a new chapter opened in the bilateral relationship, centered on fairer trade, stronger market economies and much deeper security cooperation.
Secretary of State · September 16 message
“For too long, both of our nations have suffered an epidemic of transnational organized crime and narcoterrorism, uncontrolled mass migration and cartel violence that was allowed to fester in Mexico.”
The two lines to read together.He said the scourge of narcoterrorism has forced ordinary Mexicans to live in fear in their own homes, and that the poison smuggled across the shared border is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. And he closed with this: we still have much more work to do together.An Independence Day greeting that devotes most of its length to what is missing. That is also a data point.
And why the date matters. The message came out one day after the Presidential Determination reached Congress. A budget document calling for exposing, arresting and prosecuting officials, and the next day a diplomatic message about a secure and free Mexico. They are two faces of the same policy: the demand in writing and the open hand in public.
Committed to a secure and free Mexico, says the message. Expose, arrest and prosecute, says the document. The distance between those two sentences is the real policy.
Statements belong to the U.S. Secretary of State and are quoted per the text released by the Embassy. Characterizations of criminal organizations are his and do not constitute a determination of responsibility regarding individuals.
03The same document · Two countries
Presidential Determination for Fiscal Year 2027, submitted to Congress September 15, 2026 · the 23 countries identified as major transit or illicit production include Mexico and Venezuela; the demonstrable failure designation is a separate category
Venezuela exits the demonstrable failure list and Mexico keeps the demand
The same document, the same day, two different paragraphs. One rewards a change of government. The other asks for arrests.
What changed with Venezuela. The document determines Venezuela should no longer be designated as having failed demonstrably to fulfill its drug control commitments. The reason the text itself gives is the removal of Nicolás Maduro and growing cooperation with the interim government, including the elimination of the Tren de Aragua leader. It also clarifies the new government has not yet had sufficient time to reduce cultivation.
Own comparison between the two paragraphs · Diario Geopolitico chart
And what did not change with Mexico.Mexico remains on the list of 23 major transit or illicit production countries, and its paragraph is the one containing the demand to expose, arrest and prosecute officials. The document also mentions the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, an alliance with over a dozen countries in the hemisphere.The reading that matters for a founder: the document rewards verifiable change and penalizes its absence, and it does so in the same text that sets policy for the incoming fiscal year.
In a single document, one country exits the blacklist for removing its government and another receives a list of three verbs. That asymmetry is the message.
Statements about Venezuela, including the removal of its former leader, correspond to the text of the document and are reported as such. Both countries remain on the 23-country transit or production list; what changed is the demonstrable failure designation, a separate category.
The Rubio strategy: what I documented before it became an official document
Four pieces I have described for months: terrorist designation, shared intelligence, police or military cooperation, and the demand on officials.
Why I put it back today. Because the fourth piece, the one missing in writing, appeared on September 15 in the Presidential Determination. The other three were already documented: the designation of organizations as foreign terrorist organizations, intelligence sharing, and the operational cooperation the document itself credits when citing the elimination of El Mencho.
What the research contains.The full regional architecture, the background of each piece and the jurisdictions where each one activates. It is on Patreon, alongside the Sonata Network, the three parts of the Quintana Roo file and the rest of the work that sustains this paper.
05My complaint in the United States · Sonata Network
14-page disclosure to DOJ, OFAC, FinCEN, HSI and the State Department · eight protected witnesses · sonata.simonlevy.mx
López Obrador and Beatriz Gutiérrez Müller nephews work with the network laundering money for the Sinaloa Cartel in Puebla
Santiago and Rodrigo Jara Gutiérrez. Nine years without a single charge. If the document asks to expose, arrest and prosecute, this is a file already filed.
In plain words. The traffickers: a Sinaloa Cartel cell leader arrested inside a nightclub in Sonata. The launderers: the club, the hotel and the mall belong to the same real estate group, investigated since 2017 and never charged. The shield: eight protected witnesses state the former president nephews are partners in the group and ensure the files get shelved. Fourteen pages already submitted to five U.S. agencies.
Every person named retains the presumption of innocence. Witness claims are labeled as such and have not been independently confirmed. None of the persons mentioned is named in the Presidential Determination, which identifies no officials.
CÓNSUL: your legal and business strategist before you sign, hire or expose yourself
An edition about a document calling to expose, arrest and prosecute officials. If your company contracts with the public sector, this concerns you.
What it is for today. It gives you a strategic read before a decision: a public contract you are about to sign, a partner you do not know, a supplier whose invoicing does not add up, a foreign client starting to ask for new guarantees. It does not replace your lawyer. It tells you what to ask and where the risk nobody flagged is.
Why this week.When a demand about public officials moves into a budget document, what follows are reviews of counterparties, payment chains and ultimate beneficiaries. Whoever has their documentation in order gets through it. Whoever does not finds out when they are already inside.Reviewing it costs an afternoon. Not reviewing it costs a quarter.
The Presidential Determination identifies 23 major drug transit or illicit production countries, with Mexico among them
The list also includes China, India, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela. The text itself clarifies that being on it does not necessarily reflect each government counterdrug efforts.
Global
02
The document credits the elimination of El Mencho to security cooperation between Mexico and the United States
The CJNG leader died on February 22, 2026 after a Mexican military operation in Jalisco. It is the same episode that sank Vallarta hotel occupancy eleven points.
Mexico
03
The Americas Counter Cartel Coalition brings together over a dozen countries in the Western Hemisphere
The document credits it with reducing drug flows into the United States and seizing billions of dollars in illicit finances.
Global
04
Mexico must open its supply chain integrity to greater private industry participation, the document says
And significantly increase inspections at its ports of entry. It is the first time a Determination frames the issue in these terms.
Economy
05
The text also states that Canada and Mexico need to do far more to stop drug flows
It is the same period in which Canada seeks a special relationship with the European Union and Mexico negotiates tariffs without a USMCA deal.
Global
06
This Friday the 18th Finance publishes next week subsidy decree
It is the signal that will tell whether it keeps the diesel fuel tax at zero or the price starts rising. The tax margin has already hit its limit.
Economy
07
The U.S. ten-year yield stays above 5 percent, its highest level since 2007
It raises mortgages, corporate credit and the cost of capital of any project. For Mexico it pressures the peso and Banxico room to maneuver.
Economy
08
Venezuela is no longer designated as having failed demonstrably in its counterdrug commitments
The document attributes the change to the removal of Nicolás Maduro and the interim government cooperation, while warning cultivation has not yet fallen.
Global
09
The Secretary of State Independence Day message devotes most of its text to narcoterrorism
It closed with the line that there is still much more work to do together. It came out one day after the Determination reached Congress.
Mexico
10
The 2027 electoral process begins with rejection of Morena eleven points higher than a year ago
It went from 24.6 to 36.1 percent per the national survey, while its voting preference stayed practically unchanged.
My complaint in the United States · Sonata Network
López Obrador nephews work with the network laundering money for the Sinaloa Cartel in Puebla.
Santiago and Rodrigo Jara Gutiérrez. Nine years untouched. Eight protected witnesses. Fourteen pages to DOJ, OFAC, FinCEN, HSI and State. Every person mentioned retains the presumption of innocence.
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Two things happened on September 15: a federal judge signed the first known arrest warrant against a businessman from the former president circle, and a Presidential Determination reached the U.S. Congress calling for exposing, arresting and prosecuting corrupt officials. Nobody has said one caused the other, and I do not claim it either. What I do say is that both are dated the same day, and when that happens it is worth reading the calendar before the press releases.
