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Wage data released this morning closes the loop: the economy grew 3.4% last quarter, but in twelve months prices outran pay. The Fed held and two officials voted to raise. Oil touched $117.84 as Washington weighs Iran after Tuesday.
The problem, in plain words.The economy is growing fast and the average paycheck is still losing ground. Those two facts can be true at the same time, and four days before the midterms they are. The growth shows up in investment and in spending. The loss shows up at the register: in the twelve months to September, prices measured by the index the Federal Reserve targets rose faster than wages.
Thread A: the growth.On October 29 the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its advance estimate for the third quarter. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. In current dollars the economy grew 5.6%. The BEA lists the drivers: investment, led by inventories and computers and related equipment; consumer spending; and federal nondefense spending, partly because the government sold less crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve than in the second quarter. Exports fell and imports rose, which subtracts from the total.
Thread B: the prices.The same day, the BEA’s personal income report for September put the PCE price index up 0.5% in a single month and 3.6% from a year earlier. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% in the month and 3.1% in the year. Personal income rose 0.2%, or 54.5 billion dollars; spending rose 0.5%, or 113.1 billion. Spending growing more than twice as fast as income has a consequence: the personal saving rate fell to 3.8%.
Thread C: the paychecks.This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter. Wages and salaries rose 0.7% in the quarter and 3.1% in twelve months. Total compensation, including benefits, rose 3.4%; benefits alone rose 3.9%. Put the BLS wage figure next to the BEA price figure for the same twelve months and the gap is half a point: 3.1% minus 3.6%. That subtraction is ours, not an official statistic, and it is the number the rest of this edition hangs on.
Inflation remains elevated.Federal Open Market Committee statement, October 28, 2026
The Fed’s answer.On October 28 the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10 to 2. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack wanted a quarter point increase. The statement upgraded its description of the economy to expanding “at a strong pace” from “solid” in September, said job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and attributed elevated uncertainty partly to geopolitical developments. According to Fortune, it is the first time since October 1992 that a governor and a regional bank president dissented on the same side, and Cook’s first dissent since she joined the Board in 2022.
The plumbing changed too.The Fed’s implementation note, effective October 29, sets interest on reserve balances at 3.90%, the overnight reverse repo rate at 3.75% with a cap of 160 billion dollars per counterparty per day, and the standing repo and primary credit rates at 4.0%. The Fed will keep buying Treasury bills as needed to hold reserves “ample.” Those numbers decide what banks earn on cash parked at the Fed and what a money market fund pays its savers next week.
The labor market is not the problem.The Labor Department reported 194,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, down 1,000, with a four-week average of 196,750. Insured unemployment was 1,701,000 in the week ending October 17. Chair Kevin Warsh, according to coverage of his press conference by Wolf Street, called inflation “too high” and described the meeting as a family fight. Low layoffs and fast growth are exactly the conditions under which a central bank feels free to raise.
What the market expects.According to Fortune, CME FedWatch priced about 78% odds of a hike at the December 9 meeting before Wednesday’s decision; Admiral Markets put it near 85% afterward. The 10-year Treasury par yield closed Thursday at 4.98%, down from 5.05%, according to the Treasury’s daily yield curve. A mortgage, a car loan and a small business credit line all price off that curve.
Our calculation, in a household.A worker who earned 60,000 dollars a year in September 2025 and got the average 3.1% raise earns about 61,860 dollars now. To buy the same basket of goods and services as a year ago, at 3.6% more, that worker would need about 62,160 dollars. The difference is roughly 300 dollars a year. It is small per person and large in a country where the vote is decided at the margin. The figures are illustrative, built from the two official percentages; they are not a measurement of any actual household.
Why this is a Washington story.The Fed is independent by statute, but its Board is not insulated from the White House. On October 7 the President signed a memorandum creating a Committee of Inquiry into allegations of false statements by Governor Cook, the same governor who on Wednesday voted to tighten. We take that thread further below, in the section “What nobody connected.” The point here is simpler: the inflation number voters feel and the composition of the body that fights it are both on the table in the same week.
What to watch.Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. The FOMC minutes of this meeting, by the Fed’s usual three-week practice, would come around November 18. The next decision is December 9. Congress is funded only through December 11. Between now and then, the half point between wages and prices is the most honest summary of how the economy feels to the people who vote.
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Join here →No polls here. Only votes already cast, my forecast and, from election night on November 3, the real result, state by state. The map paints itself with each result.
| State | Votes cast | Registered Democrats | Registered Republicans |
|---|
Each marked state leads to the story that explains it.
Wages and salaries rose 3.1% (Employment Cost Index, to Q3 2026); the PCE price index rose 3.6% (to September 2026). On 60,000 dollars a year, that is about 300 dollars of lost purchasing power.
BLS, October 30, 2026 · BEA, October 29, 2026 · Daily calculationJustice, elections and the statutes that move.
The problem, in plain words.Voting in a federal election without being a citizen is a federal crime. How often it happens, and how hard the government should look for it, is one of the most contested questions of this election. Five days before the vote, the Justice Department answered with cases in one state and personnel in many.
The charges.On October 29 the department announced charges against 18 more people in North Carolina for voting illegally in the 2024 election. With earlier cases, the statewide total this year is 30: 21 in the Eastern District, 5 in the Middle District and 4 in the Western District. Ten of the Eastern District indictments were unveiled on October 15.
The statutes.Two charges recur. Falsely claiming U.S. citizenship in order to register or vote carries up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to 250,000 dollars. Voting by an alien in a federal election carries up to 1 year and up to 100,000 dollars. Those are statutory maximums, not sentences. The department’s own release states that every defendant is presumed innocent.
The names.Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter announced the cases with the three U.S. Attorneys in the state: Ellis Boyle in the Eastern District, Dan Bishop in the Middle District and Russ Ferguson in the Western District. FBI Charlotte Special Agent in Charge Reid Davis and Homeland Security Investigations Carolinas Special Agent in Charge Mark M. Zito joined them.
If you’re not an American citizen, you cannot vote in our federal elections.Trent McCotter, Acting Deputy Attorney General, October 29, 2026
The monitors.According to a department spokesperson quoted by Newsweek, the Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 election monitors on November 3, against 289 in 2022 and 714 in 2024. The monitors would be drawn from the Bureau of Prisons, ATF, DEA and Customs and Border Protection. We found no Justice Department press release confirming that figure, so we report it as the department’s word to one outlet, not as a published order.
The local answer.Counties decide who stands inside a polling place. According to Newsweek, Marion and Lake counties in Indiana and Jefferson and Fayette counties in Kentucky say federal monitors will stay outside. In Washington County, Arkansas, the election commission voted 3 to 0 to deny access. In Michigan, the cities notified on October 21 were Detroit, East Lansing, Flint, Grand Rapids, Hamtramck, Lansing and Warren.
Our reading of the numbers.Thirty cases in a state where more than five million people voted in 2024 is a tiny rate. That is not a reason to ignore them: every unlawful ballot cancels a lawful one. But it is a reason to keep the two numbers in proportion when either side uses them on Tuesday night. The monitor deployment, by contrast, is a large number by any historical measure: about 3.5 times 2022 and 1.4 times 2024.
What a monitor can and cannot do.A federal monitor observes and reports; it does not stop a voter, handle a ballot or count. Where a state or county keeps monitors outside the polling place, they can still watch lines, entrances and drop boxes. The practical weight of the deployment is less in what monitors do on Tuesday than in the reports they file afterward.
What could happen next.If a monitor is refused entry and the department sues, the dispute lands in federal court within hours, likely in the same week as the count. If no one sues, the deployment becomes a matter of record for the post-election reviews that both parties are already preparing. Either way, the 30 North Carolina defendants will move through their own courts long after the results are certified.
The problem, in plain words.Voting in a federal election without being a citizen is a federal crime. How often it happens, and how hard the government should look for it, is one of the most contested questions of this election. Five days before the vote, the Justice Department answered with cases in one state and personnel in many.
The charges.On October 29 the department announced charges against 18 more people in North Carolina for voting illegally in the 2024 election. With earlier cases, the statewide total this year is 30: 21 in the Eastern District, 5 in the Middle District and 4 in the Western District. Ten of the Eastern District indictments were unveiled on October 15.
The statutes.Two charges recur. Falsely claiming U.S. citizenship in order to register or vote carries up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to 250,000 dollars. Voting by an alien in a federal election carries up to 1 year and up to 100,000 dollars. Those are statutory maximums, not sentences. The department’s own release states that every defendant is presumed innocent.
The names.Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter announced the cases with the three U.S. Attorneys in the state: Ellis Boyle in the Eastern District, Dan Bishop in the Middle District and Russ Ferguson in the Western District. FBI Charlotte Special Agent in Charge Reid Davis and Homeland Security Investigations Carolinas Special Agent in Charge Mark M. Zito joined them.
If you’re not an American citizen, you cannot vote in our federal elections.Trent McCotter, Acting Deputy Attorney General, October 29, 2026
How the case was built.Hernández Victoria is the seventh person charged in connection with the tunnel. A criminal complaint filed in June 2026 in the Southern District of California, case 26mj03219, named four other defendants; it is not his case. Prosecutors say he was arrested in Jalisco on October 15 and indicted in San Diego two weeks later. The release does not say whether he is in U.S. custody or awaiting extradition, and we do not assume either.
What the document does not say.It does not establish that the defendant knew he was working for a designated terrorist organization. That knowledge element is exactly what prosecutors will have to prove at trial, and it is where a 2339B case is won or lost. The release also does not name the organization it considers the beneficiary; Mexican press reports do, and we do not reproduce that as established fact.
Hernandez engineered his own downfall.Adam Gordon, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California, October 29, 2026
The penalties, in context.The terrorism count alone carries up to 20 years. The two counts tied to using the tunnel to import controlled substances carry up to life. In practice the terrorism count does not change the ceiling of this case; it changes its category. A defendant convicted under 2339B is a terrorism defendant for every later purpose: sentencing enhancements, detention conditions, immigration consequences and the way his associates are treated by banks.
Who should read this indictment.In our analysis, the audience is wider than tunnel builders. Material support covers expert advice, services and professional work. Engineers, architects, accountants, carriers and lawyers who serve clients in regions where designated organizations operate now face a statute with a 20-year maximum that does not require proof that they wanted to further violence. The defense in every such case will turn on what the professional knew, and when.
Iran, Israel and China, read from here.
The problem, in plain words.Oil is priced on fear as much as on barrels. This week the fear has a date: the day after the U.S. midterms. Every signal from Washington, Tehran and the Gulf is being read against that date, and the price of crude is the scoreboard.
Thread A: the question and the answer.Asked whether new strikes on Iran could come after the U.S. elections, President Trump said, according to Fox News, that he could not say, “but anything’s possible.” The New York Times reported, as relayed by Al Jazeera, that the United States and Israel drew up joint plans to attack Iran after November 3. We have not seen those plans and report them as the newspaper’s account.
Thread B: the outreach.In the same days, Vice President JD Vance reached out to Major General Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The President confirmed the contact, said he did not direct it, and described it as humanitarian, about medical supplies. Iran’s state agency IRNA said no reply had been sent as of Thursday. On October 30, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran for talks coordinated with Washington, according to Reuters as cited by Al Jazeera.
Thread C: Tehran’s price.Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf repeated that any deal requires Iran’s seven conditions. Among them, as reported: lifting sanctions, ending the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, guarantees against future strikes and the release of frozen assets. None of those is on the table from the U.S. side as of this morning.
The water.The UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported that on October 29 a tanker was hit by two explosive devices about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. The fire was extinguished and the crew is safe. U.S. Central Command called Iranian claims that ships had struck mines “FALSE” and said the primary shipping routes are cleared. Brent settled at 114.88 dollars on Thursday and touched 117.84 on Friday morning, its highest since late April.
The Treasury line.On October 29 the Office of Foreign Assets Control issued Iran General License FF-1, authorizing the wind-down of transactions involving the International Development Bank for Investment and Finance. A wind-down license means a designation is being made effective, not lifted: counterparties get a window to exit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, according to press reports, that Treasury is tracking and freezing crypto assets of the Iranian regime.
Israel, the other half of the plan.Also today, Israel’s Central Elections Committee published the final count of its election, unchanged from the last update: Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 53 seats, the opposing bloc 48, Arab parties 19. Governing takes 61 of 120. Turnout was 77.9%, or 5,716,665 votes. The result goes to President Isaac Herzog on November 4 and the new Knesset is sworn in on November 10. Any joint operation after Tuesday would be decided by a government that does not yet have a majority.
Our calculation.At 117.84 dollars, Brent is 15.84 dollars above Thursday’s WTI settlement of 102.00, a spread of about 15%. A wide gap between the international and the U.S. benchmark is what a supply risk concentrated in the Gulf looks like: the barrels most exposed to Hormuz carry the premium. If the premium holds through Tuesday, it feeds straight into the energy part of the price index discussed in today’s lead.
Who objects.Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, called the reported plan “insane,” according to press reports. No congressional authorization for new strikes has been introduced, and Congress is out until after the election.
The problem, in plain words.The United States presumes that goods tied to forced labor in Xinjiang cannot enter the country. On October 28 it applied that rule to the companies that make many of the world’s gene sequencers and the chemicals they run on. The move is about human rights and it is also about who controls the genetic data of millions of people.
What happened.The Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force, chaired by the Department of Homeland Security, added BGI Genomics Co., MGI Tech Co. and Shenzhen BGI Technology Co., the BGI Group, to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act Entity List. The Federal Register published the notice on October 29, document 2026-22094, effective that day.
What it does.Under the law, Customs and Border Protection presumes that goods from listed entities are made wholly or in part with forced labor and bars them from entry. An importer can rebut the presumption only with clear and convincing evidence. According to Bloomberg, the listing covers gene sequencers, reagents and other products. The finding, as reported, is that the companies help Xinjiang authorities run surveillance using genetic data on ethnic minorities.
The names.Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin; Rob Law, DHS Under Secretary for Strategy, Policy and Plans and chair of the task force; and Aris Kourkoumelis, Assistant Secretary for Trade and Economic Security, are the officials associated with the action in press coverage. Representative John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on China, backed it.
The scale.The list now holds 190 entities, according to press counts; it grew by 43 in a single action on July 31, 2026. BGI is different from most names on it: it is not a cotton farm or a solar polysilicon plant but a scientific platform used by hospitals and laboratories, including in the United States.
Beijing’s answer.China’s Commerce and Foreign Ministries condemned the decision. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun declined to say whether it would affect the meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. APEC leaders meet in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19. The U.S.-China trade truce was extended by two months, to January 2027, during Xi’s September visit to Washington.
Our reading.The timing is the message. A listing that hits a flagship Shenzhen company, announced three weeks before a summit in Shenzhen, tells Beijing that the truce covers tariffs, not the forced-labor statute. For American labs, the practical question is supply: any lab that runs on BGI or MGI consumables now has to find another vendor or document a clean supply chain.
Thread A, B, C.A: the task force finds the companies tied to genetic surveillance in Xinjiang. B: under the 2021 law, that finding flips the burden of proof at the border onto the importer. C: unless a buyer can document a supply chain free of forced labor, sequencers and reagents from the three companies stop at the port. No tariff, no negotiation: a presumption.
Why genetic data matters here.A gene sequencer is not a neutral machine. The company that sells it often supplies the software, the reagents and the cloud where results are stored. Congress has debated for years whether Chinese genomics firms should handle American patient data; this listing does not settle that debate, but it narrows the commercial channel through which the question arises.
What to watch.Whether CBP publishes detentions of specific shipments in the coming weeks; whether any U.S. hospital system asks for a transition period; and whether the Shenzhen meeting produces a statement that mentions the listing at all.
Tariffs, borders and the neighbors.
The problem, in plain words.The United States and Canada still have a free trade agreement. On a growing list of products, it no longer matters. Since August, a 50% duty applies to Canadian goods named by proclamation, with or without USMCA status. Since 12:01 a.m. Eastern time today, that list is different again.
What changed today.Proclamation 11076, signed October 23 and published in the Federal Register on October 30, modifies the scope of products of Canada subject to the additional duties. According to the White House fact sheet, it removes certain plywood, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment and packing crates, and adds valves, carpets, waste products and others.
The legal base.The duties rest on Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely used provision that lets the President impose duties on a country that discriminates against U.S. commerce. The White House ties them to Canada’s motor vehicle measures, to Canada walking away from a near-final deal this summer, and to Canadian retaliatory tariffs on about 20 billion dollars of U.S. exports.
The history.According to Baker McKenzie, the 50% rate was set by Proclamation 11048 on July 20, 2026, and first took effect on August 22. The list was revised on September 8 by Proclamation 11065, and now by 11076. The White House fact sheet confirms that the duties apply whether or not goods qualify under the USMCA and that they stack on top of Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and other sectors.
The first challenge.Gellert Global Group Corp. has sued the President at the U.S. Court of International Trade, seeking an injunction, refunds of duties paid and certification of a class of importers, according to Baker McKenzie. It is the first direct challenge to the Section 338 duties. A class action on refunds is the kind of case that, if it succeeds, turns a tariff into a liability for the Treasury.
Our reading.Three list changes in about three months is itself the message to businesses on both sides of the border: the scope is a negotiating instrument, not a fixed policy. A Canadian valve maker that was outside the duty last week is inside it today; a plywood exporter is out. For a U.S. buyer, that means contracts priced on a list that may not survive the next proclamation.
The same week, a different tool.On October 28 the President signed a Section 232 proclamation finding that imports of robotics and industrial machinery threaten national security, but imposed no tariff: Commerce and USTR must negotiate and report within 180 days. Canada is a major supplier of machinery to the United States. One instrument punishes now; the other keeps a threat open until spring.
Who pays.A tariff is paid at the U.S. border by the U.S. importer of record, not by the Canadian exporter. Whether the cost then passes to the buyer, gets absorbed by the importer or squeezes the foreign supplier depends on each product. That is why the refund claim in Gellert matters: if the duties are found unlawful, the money goes back to American importers, not to Canada.
What to watch.Whether the Court of International Trade grants a preliminary injunction; whether Ottawa adjusts its own retaliation list in response; and whether the USMCA joint review, already under way, absorbs any of this or gets stalled by it.
What the evidence says, at three levels.
The problem, in plain words.Voting in a federal election without being a citizen is a federal crime. How often it happens, and how hard the government should look for it, is one of the most contested questions of this election. Five days before the vote, the Justice Department answered with cases in one state and personnel in many.
The charges.On October 29 the department announced charges against 18 more people in North Carolina for voting illegally in the 2024 election. With earlier cases, the statewide total this year is 30: 21 in the Eastern District, 5 in the Middle District and 4 in the Western District. Ten of the Eastern District indictments were unveiled on October 15.
The statutes.Two charges recur. Falsely claiming U.S. citizenship in order to register or vote carries up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to 250,000 dollars. Voting by an alien in a federal election carries up to 1 year and up to 100,000 dollars. Those are statutory maximums, not sentences. The department’s own release states that every defendant is presumed innocent.
The names.Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter announced the cases with the three U.S. Attorneys in the state: Ellis Boyle in the Eastern District, Dan Bishop in the Middle District and Russ Ferguson in the Western District. FBI Charlotte Special Agent in Charge Reid Davis and Homeland Security Investigations Carolinas Special Agent in Charge Mark M. Zito joined them.
If you’re not an American citizen, you cannot vote in our federal elections.Trent McCotter, Acting Deputy Attorney General, October 29, 2026
How the case was built.Hernández Victoria is the seventh person charged in connection with the tunnel. A criminal complaint filed in June 2026 in the Southern District of California, case 26mj03219, named four other defendants; it is not his case. Prosecutors say he was arrested in Jalisco on October 15 and indicted in San Diego two weeks later. The release does not say whether he is in U.S. custody or awaiting extradition, and we do not assume either.
What the document does not say.It does not establish that the defendant knew he was working for a designated terrorist organization. That knowledge element is exactly what prosecutors will have to prove at trial, and it is where a 2339B case is won or lost. The release also does not name the organization it considers the beneficiary; Mexican press reports do, and we do not reproduce that as established fact.
Hernandez engineered his own downfall.Adam Gordon, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California, October 29, 2026
The penalties, in context.The terrorism count alone carries up to 20 years. The two counts tied to using the tunnel to import controlled substances carry up to life. In practice the terrorism count does not change the ceiling of this case; it changes its category. A defendant convicted under 2339B is a terrorism defendant for every later purpose: sentencing enhancements, detention conditions, immigration consequences and the way his associates are treated by banks.
Who should read this indictment.In our analysis, the audience is wider than tunnel builders. Material support covers expert advice, services and professional work. Engineers, architects, accountants, carriers and lawyers who serve clients in regions where designated organizations operate now face a statute with a 20-year maximum that does not require proof that they wanted to further violence. The defense in every such case will turn on what the professional knew, and when.
The election is the first domino, not the last.
House, Senate and governors. About 1,000 federal monitors planned.
Closed White House hearing of the Committee of Inquiry on Governor Lisa Cook.
Post-hearing statements in the Cook inquiry close. Israel’s new Knesset takes office.
Trump and Xi expected, three weeks after BGI and MGI were barred.
Markets price a hike as likely, per CME FedWatch as reported.
The stopgap that funds the federal government expires.
What I said, when I said it, and what happened.
Proof: Resolved on election night, November 3. →
PendingProof: He landed in Opa-locka, Miami, and publicly thanked Javier Milei.
Called itEverything else that matters today, in brief.
The ministry and Zigama Credit and Savings Society were designated October 28 under E.O. 13413. Treasury says Zigama moved M23 transactions worth “tens of millions of dollars.” Bessent cited the Washington Accords. Source: Treasury, sb0668.
Ten people and one entity in Russia, including Vitold Obertas (nearly $2 million in crypto) and Ilya Boykov ($3.5 million). Source: Treasury, sb0669, October 28.
The October 28 Section 232 proclamation orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate and report within 180 days. The sector ships about $7.1 trillion a year. Source: White House.
Settlement over nine exports, 2018 to 2022, to a blocked Russian defense maker owned by Almaz-Antey. Source: OFAC, October 27.
Spokesman Tommy Pigott announced them October 29. No names or nationalities disclosed. Source: State Department.
Challengers filed their opposition October 29 in No. 26A560 to lifting an order halting construction. The November sitting opens Monday. Source: SCOTUSblog.
With Foreign Minister Anita Orbán on October 29, plus critical minerals MOUs with Finland. Source: State Department.
The September stopgap expires eight days after the Fed’s December 9 decision. Congress returns after the vote.
On October 7 the President signed a memorandum creating a Committee of Inquiry into allegations of false statements by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Its members are the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the chair of the EEOC and the director of the Office of Government Ethics. Its task: report whether there is “cause” to remove her under 12 U.S.C. 242.
On October 28, Cook cast the Board’s dissent in favor of a rate hike. The White House inquiry targets the most hawkish vote on the Board this month.
The calendar stacks: the closed hearing is November 5, two days after the election. Post-hearing statements close November 10, the day market calendars place the October consumer price report and the day Israel’s new Knesset is sworn in. The Fed decides on December 9.
Iran, the Fed’s composition and the December rate decision all hang on the same post-election week. Whoever wins on Tuesday inherits all three. Sources: White House memorandum, October 7, 2026; Federal Reserve statement, October 28, 2026. The connection is the Daily’s analysis.